App description
Anyone involved in project management has come across the daunting task of having to predict the project’s cost. This application presents a friendly yet least convoluted way to contemplate the challenge. It relies on breaking the project in low level tasks for each of which a triangular probability distribution of the cost can be drawn up. Then Monte Carlo simulation is engaged to combine this information and produce total project cost versus the confidence margin (e.g. predicted cost of $9,500.0 with 99,9% confidence margin means 0.01% probability of exceeding that cost.).
Each low level task can be either a firm cost or a risk cost associated with the project. If it is a firm cost probability is set to 1.0, otherwise if it is a risk it gets a value lower than 1.0.
The user inputs four parameters for each project task. Title, minimum cost, likely cost, maximum cost, and probability for risks only.
The data for each task are presented in table form and can be edited or deleted in retrospect.
The S-curve produced by the Monte Carlo simulation can be accurately read by sliding a visual aide on the curve.
Reading the results on the plot
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